Collingwood and Geelong are both coming off good wins in Round 5. The Magpies 75 points win over the Blues has moved them up to 2nd position on the AFL ladder. Collingwood have had a fairly easy draw but they have been outstanding with their pressure and contested-possession where they are currently the number 1 ranked team, averaging 157 per match.
The Cats 9 points win over the Tigers in Round 5 has moved them up to 14th position on the AFL ladder. Geelong has had a tough draw so far which is reflected in their statistics. They are ranked last in contested-possession, last in clearances and they have kicked the ball less than any other side in the AFL, averaging just 186 per match.
What The Bookies Think
The bookies have opened the markets and installed Collingwood as the $1.75 favorite with Geelong paying $2.15
The line is currently sitting at -4.5 points Collingwood and +4.5 points Geelong.
Collingwood to lead at the end of all four quarters $3.10
Geelong to lead at the end of all four quarters $4.45
The total match line is currently sitting at 167.5 points.
What We Think
They kicked the last 5 in that match as well, so overall you cannot fault their current form or intensity around the football. Their 4 wins to date have been by large margins, reflected in their percentage at 147.5.
Geelong has had a tough start to the season, winning only 2 matches so far against Gold Coast and Richmond. They got smashed by the Hawks in Round 1 by 62 points, Fremantle by 44 points in Round 2 and North Melbourne by 16 points in Round 4. A couple of heavy defeats have seen their percent plummet to just 78.4.
Collingwood have won 3 of the past 4 contests between these two sides but Geelong did win last season in Round 3 by 9 points to hold off the fast finishing Magpies. Travis Cloke was held goalless in that match last year but looks to be in decent form at the moment.
It is still early in the season but we cannot go past the Magpies again in this match. They were outstanding last Friday night against Carlton and were even better against Essendon in Round 4. The Pie’s defense is currently working like a well-oiled machine. They have only conceded 324 points compared to Geelong at 482 in the first 5 rounds.
This will be the Pies toughest test to date. We do rate Geelong as a Top 8 team but all the statistics point towards another Collingwood victory. We landed our biggest bet of the Round on Collingwood at the line last week and we see no reason to jump off them at this point.
Geelong has been very average so far this season but they are a capable team, with lots of experience. They only just managed to beat the Gold Coast Suns at Simonds Stadium and their 9 points win over Richmond last weekend was not that convincing. We would need to see more improvement in the Cats before jumping onboard. They will be missing Jimmy Bartel, Mathew Stokes and James Kelly in this match. Mitch Clarke is also in doubt with a foot injury and if confirmed, we think the Pies odds will only shorten.
The match Over/Under line looks like an interesting proposition. Bet365 currently has it at 167.5 points and that looks a little low to us. The last 5 match totals were 163, 198, 189,180 and 200 points. The weather forecast is calling for fine conditions in which case, we think the Over 167.5 looks good.
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