Match Prediction Round 10: Essendon v Geelong

Essendon v Geelong:

Etihad Stadium is the venue for Saturday evenings AFL Round 10 match between Essendon and Geelong.
Essendon and Geelong have both lost two of their past three matches and the loser of this match could have a tough time playing finals football this season.

The Bombers enter Round 10 off the back of a 13 point defeat by Richmond last week. That loss has relegated Essendon to 10th position on the AFL ladder with 4 wins and 5 losses.

The Cats were thumped to the tune of 64 points by the Eagles in Round 9 and it could have been over 100 points had the Eagles kicked straight. Geelong now finds themselves in 12th position on the AFL ladder, also with 4 wins and 5 losses.

The Bombers will be without their skipper Jobe Watson and 400 game veteran Dustin Fletcher while the Cats will likely be without Rhys Stanley and Mitch Clark.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Geelong as the $1.75 favorite with Essendon paying $2.10
The line is currently sitting at -4.5 points Geelong and +4.5 points Essendon.
Geelong to lead at the end of all four quarters $3.50
Essendon to lead at the end of all four quarters $4.30
The total match line is currently sitting at 177.5 points.

What We Think

Essendon were competitive against Richmond last week but the Bombers still appear to have troubles kicking a winning score. They have only kicked 100 points in 2 matches this season and those two matches were against weak opposition in Carlton and Brisbane. They only managed 59 points against the Tigers last Round and they are Ranked 14th for points per game.

It is still difficult to get an accurate read on the Cats this season. They were absolutely horrendous last week against the Eagles after beating Carlton by 77 points in Round 8.

However, Geelong plays well at Etihad stadium and they do not normally put in two terrible performances in a row. The Cats have dominated the Bombers for most of the past decade, winning 10 of the past 12 games, including the last 3. They have won half of those matches by more than 50 points.

Jobe Watson is a massive out for Essendon and their defense will miss Dustin Fletcher’s experience in the back line. Tom Hawkins is due for a big bag of goals and he should get his chance in this match.
Joe Daniher will find it tough against Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan and if the Cats can stop him, Essendon will find it tough to once again kick a winning score.

We think the Cats will bounce back this week and they will be just too strong for the Bombers.

Geelong to win: $1.75
Geelong at the line: -4.5 points at $1.91
Most Goals: Tom Hawkins (TBA)
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.