Match Prediction Round 11: Port Adelaide v Geelong


Port Adelaide v Geelong:

The Adelaide Oval is the venue for Friday evenings AFL Round 11 match between Port Adelaide and Geelong. It is a pretty good way to kick off the start of the bye rounds.

Both teams sit at 5 wins and 5 losses and the winner will look to cement themselves a spot in the Top 8.
Port Adelaide enters Round 11 off the back of a 38 point win over the Western Bulldogs last week. That makes it two wins in a row for the Power but they are not exactly playing to the same standard they achieved last season. Port Adelaide is currently in 9th position on the AFL ladder.

The Cats have been inconsistent this season but they bounced back to winning form last round by smashing the Bombers by 69 points. Geelong were thumped to the tune of 64 points by the Eagles in Round 9 and it could have been over 100 points had the Eagles kicked straight. Geelong now sits in 10th position on the AFL ladder but a win here could put them into the Top 8 for the first time this season.

Jackson Trengrove and Paddy Ryder look likely to miss out again for Port Adelaide. The Cats will welcome the return of Rhys Stanley but Shane Kersten and Mitch Clark are doubtful.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Port Adelaide as the $1.48 favorite with Geelong paying $2.75

The line is currently sitting at -13.5 points Port Adelaide and +13.5 points Geelong.

Port Adelaide to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.80

Geelong to lead at the end of all four quarters $5.00

The total match line is currently sitting at 173.5 points.

What We Think

Port Adelaide beat Geelong last season by 40 points at the Adelaide Oval but Geelong won their previous 10 matches against the Power.

It is still difficult to get an accurate read on the Cats this season. They were brilliant last round against the Bombers but were absolutely horrendous the previous round against the Eagles. They have won three out of their last five games with an average winning margin of 62 points and lost 2 by an averaging losing margin of 50 points.

Geelong is still the worst clearance side in the AFL this season, averaging just 33 per match but they have been excellent when it comes to contested possession, where they are ranked 2nd.

Port Adelaide have shown signs in their last two matches that they are getting back to the form they consistently played last season. They have finished off their last two matches very well after slow starts. The Power has struggled with contested possession this season but they have been excellent around the clearances.

A packed Adelaide Oval is a massive advantage for Port Adelaide in this match. Geelong’s travelling record this season has been very ordinary. We did back Geelong last round against the Bombers but we are going to be on Port Adelaide on Friday night.

Port Adelaide is due for a good start and if they can improve their contested possession, they should be just too strong for Geelong at home.

Prediction:
Port Adelaide to win: $1.48
Port Adelaide at the line: -13.5 points at $1.91
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.