Match Prediction Round 12: Adelaide v Hawthorn


Adelaide v Hawthorn:

The Adelaide Oval is the venue for Thursday night’s AFL Round 12 match between Adelaide and Hawthorn. This will be the first of five consecutive Thursday night football matches this season.

The Hawks went into the bye with two massive wins against the Gold Coast Suns and St. Kilda. Those two consecutive wins have moved Hawthorn into 6th position on the AFL ladder with 6 wins and 4 losses.

The Crows went into the bye by just scraping home against the Carlton Blues. However, they lost their two previous matches against Greater Western Sydney and Fremantle. Adelaide is currently in 7th position on the AFL ladder, also with 6 wins and 4 losses.

The Hawks are only missing Grant Birchall from their best 22, while the Crows also enter this match in good shape with Ricky Henderson and Jake Lever the only noticeable absentees.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Hawthorn as the $1.40 favorite with Adelaide paying $3.10

The line is currently sitting at a -18.5 points Hawthorn and +18.5 Adelaide.

Hawthorn to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.10 (Haw/Haw/Haw/Haw)

Adelaide to lead at the end of all four quarters $7.00 (Ade/Ade/Ade/Ade)

The total match line is currently sitting at 185.5 points.

What We Think

It is surprising to find the Hawks at 6 and 4 at this stage of the season. Hawthorn were arguably unlucky not to pick up the points against Port Adelaide in round 4 and Sydney in round 8.

The Hawks rank 1st in disposals, 2nd in points conceded and 3rd in points scored. They have a very healthy percentage at 155.2. They also have the luxury of a full squad to choose from for this match.

Adelaide started the season in excellent fashion winning their first 3 matches but their form dropped off severely before the bye. They only just beat Carlton in Round 10 and lost their 2 previous matches. They rank 7th in disposals, 6th in points conceded and 9th in points scored. The Crows percentage is 115, which we believe is pretty average considering they have had a relatively easy draw.

Hawthorn has won their last 4 against Adelaide by 12, 11, 5 and 56 points.

The Crows have pushed the Hawks in their last 3 matches but we just cannot go past the Hawks in this match. We still believe that Hawthorn has the best 22 in the competition and they will be keen to push for a Top 4 spot from here.

This should be an excellent match but Hawthorn look too strong, especially up forward against an under-sized Crows defense.

The match total over 185.5 looks like an interesting proposition as 5 out of their last 6 have covered this total.

Hawthorn by 32 points!

Prediction:
Hawthorn to win: $1.40
Hawthorn at the line: -18.5 points at $1.93
Match total over 185.5 points
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.