Match Prediction Round 12: Richmond v West Coast


Richmond v West Coast:

The Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) is the venue for Friday night’s AFL round 12 match between Richmond and West Coast.

The West Coast Eagles have surprised many punters this season and they are in very good form. They smashed the Bombers last round and they are currently in third position on the AFL ladder with 8 wins and 3 losses.

The Tigers went into the bye in excellent form, winning their last 4 matches including beating the Fremantle Dockers at Domain Stadium. Their 27 points win over the Dockers in round 10 has moved them into eighth position on the AFL ladder with 6 wins and 4 losses.

After a week off to recover from their brilliant win over the Dockers, the Tigers are unlikely to make any changes.

The Eagles are in the midst of consecutive six-day breaks and key defender, Jeremy McGovern is in doubt with Tom Barrass his likely replacement.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Richmond as the $1.75 favorite with West Coast paying $2.15

The line is currently sitting at a -3.5 points Richmond and +3.5 points West Coast.

Richmond to lead at the end of all four quarters $3.60 (Rich/Rich/Rich/Rich)

West Coast to lead at the end of all four quarters $4.20 (West/West/West/West)

The total match line is currently sitting at 169.5 points.

What We Think

The Tigers have played excellent football in the past four rounds. They look like the team that won 9 in a row at the end of last season to make it to the finals. Their last 4 wins were against decent opposition in Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Fremantle.

Richmond face another big task playing the in-form West Coast Eagles at the MCG as the Eagles are the number 1 attacking team in the AFL, averaging 106.5 points per game. The Tigers average only 85.9.

The Eagles have thrashed their opposition teams in the West with their five wins at Domain Stadium coming at an average of 70 points. However, they have not been so impressive on the road where they have dropped two from three against Victorian sides.

The Eagles are coming off consecutive 6 days breaks and this will be the Eagles first match at the MCG this season. The Tigers and Eagles last clashed at the MCG in round 12, 2010, with Richmond winning by 49 points. They both share 7 wins a piece at the MCG.

Jeremy McGovern could be a huge out for West Coast if he does not pass a fitness test. The Eagles backline could come under fire against the Tigers forward trio of Riewoldt, Vickery and Griffiths.

Ellis, Martin, Cotchin and Deledio are playing top footy and the Eagles midfield will not find matching them that easy. Alex Rance and Dylan Grimes will have a big task trying to stop Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras.

This should be a terrific match but the Tigers should be too strong at home. Richmond are coming of a bye and should be full of run while the West Coast could be a little sore coming of two consecutive six day breaks.

Richmond by 18 points!

Prediction:
Richmond Win: $1.75
Richmond at the line: -3.5 points at $1.93
Match total over 169.5 points
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.