Match Prediction Round 14: Collingwood v Hawthorn

Collingwood v Hawthorn:

The Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) is the venue for Friday night’s AFL Round 14 match between the Pies and the Hawks.
The Hawks have easily won their last 4 matches against the Suns, Saints, Crows and Bombers. Those wins have moved Hawthorn into 4th position on the AFL ladder with 8 wins and 4 losses.

The Pies narrowly lost last round against the Fremantle Dockers but they won their previous 4 matches. They are travelling well, currently in 5th position on the AFL ladder, also with 8 wins and 4 losses.

The Hawks are only missing James Frawley from their best 22 with Ryan Schoenmakers likely to take his place. Brodie Grundy and Tyson Goldsack will need to pass fitness tests with Ben Reid and Levi Greenwood both pushing for selection.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Hawthorn as the $1.35 favorite with Collingwood paying $3.30
The line is currently sitting at a -20.5 points Hawthorn and +20.5 Collingwood.

Hawthorn to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.05 (Haw/Haw/Haw/Haw)

Collingwood to lead at the end of all four quarters $6.90 (Coll/Coll/Coll/Coll)

The total match line is currently sitting at 187.5 points.

What We Think

The Hawks are starting to make a push for a Top 2 spot and have won their last 4 with ease. They have dropped 4 matches this season so far but they lost those games by a total of just 24 points. Hawthorn was arguably unlucky not to pick up the points against Essendon, Port Adelaide and Sydney.

The Hawks rank 1st in disposals, 4th in points conceded and 1st in points scored. They have a very healthy percentage at 152.7. They also have the luxury of a full squad to choose from for this match with Frawley the only noticeable absentee.

The Pies rank 3RD in points scored and 5th in points conceded and they are also the most accurate team in front of goals so far this season. They had a good chance to notch up their 5th consecutive win last round against Fremantle but just came up short.

Hawthorn has an excellent recent record against Collingwood, winning their last 7 matches by an average of 42 points. The match total has been over 200 points in 6 out of 7 of these matches.

Collingwood only have a 1 – 3 record against Top 8 teams this year.

There is no doubt that the Magpies are travelling well but we just cannot go past the Hawks in this match. We still believe that Hawthorn has the best 22 in the competition and they will be keen to push for a Top 2 spot from here.

This should be an excellent match but Hawthorn look too strong. They have so many options up forward and in the middle.

Hawthorn by 34!

Hawthorn to win: $1.35
Hawthorn at the line: -20.5 points at $1.93
Match total over 187.5 points
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.