Melbourne v West Coast:
TIO Stadium in Darwin is the venue for Saturday night’s AFL round 14 match between the Melbourne Demons and the West Coast Eagles.
The West Coast Eagles have surprised many punters this season and they are in very good form. They smashed the Bombers in Round 11 and they had a very good 20 point win over the Tigers at the MCG before their bye last week.
They are currently in 2nd position on the AFL ladder with 9 wins and 3 losses.
The Demons pulled off arguably their best win in the last decade before their bye, beating the Geelong Cats at Simonds Stadium by 24 points. That win has moved Melbourne into 15th position on the AFL ladder with 4 wins and 8 losses.
Jeremy McGovern, Jamie Cripps and Will Schofield all need to pass fitness tests but should be alright to play while the Demons will welcome back Colin Garland and Jesse Hogan.
What The Bookies Think
The bookies have opened the markets and installed West Coast as the $1.29 favorite with Melbourne paying $3.80
The line is currently sitting at a -23.5 points West Coast and +23.5 points Melbourne.
West Coast to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.00 (West/West/West/West)
Melbourne to lead at the end of all four quarters $7.00 (Melb/Melb/Melb/Melb)
The total match line is currently sitting at 163.5 points.
What We Think
The Eagles have thrashed their opposition teams in the West with their five wins at Domain Stadium coming at an average of 70 points. They have also improved their record on the road with their recent win over Richmond and they now stand at 2 and 2. This is an away match for the Eagles but it is being played on neutral territory which is to their advantage.
We believe that the bye has come at a good time for the Eagles as it will allow McGovern, Schofield and Cripps to recover from their niggling injuries.
The Eagles rank 2nd for points scored and 3rd for points conceded while the Demons rank 15th for points scored and 14th for point conceded. The Eagles also have a remarkable 8 – 0 record against bottom 8 sides this season and they are also 8 -0 against the line.
West Coast has won their past seven matches against the Demons by an average of 70 points and they covered the line in all 7 of those matches.
This will be the Eagles first ever match in Darwin but the Demons have only won 2 from 5. The Dockers beat Melbourne last year in Darwin by 60 points and there is no reason why the Eagles cannot do the same.
The Demons have been terrible on the road this season and they have not won 2 in a row.
The Eagles look like the “real deal”. They have one of the strongest forward structures in the competition and they should be much too strong for the Demons.
West Coast Win: $1.29
West Coast at the line: -23.5 points at $1.93
Match total over 163.5 points
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