Match Prediction Round 15: Port Adelaide v Collingwood


Port Adelaide v Collingwood:

The Adelaide Oval is the venue for Thursday night’s AFL Round 15 match between the Power and the Crows.

Port Adelaide lost their last three matches against Sydney, Carlton and Geelong. This will be their last opportunity to keep their finals hopes alive. They are currently languishing in 12th position on the AFL ladder with 5 wins and 8 losses.

The Pies narrowly lost their last two matches against the Fremantle Dockers and Hawthorn but they won their previous 4 matches. They are playing very good football at the moment, currently in 5th position on the AFL ladder, with 8 wins and 5 losses.

Collingwood are unlikely to make too many changes from last week’s narrow loss to Hawthorn but Brodie Grundy should make the trip to Adelaide.

Port Adelaide coach, Ken Hinkley has indicated that there may be up to five changes with Jonas and Carlile definite outs. There is also the possibility of late-withdrawals due to the Phil Walsh tragedy.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and they are unable to split these two sides, both are paying 1.93 for the win.

The line is currently sitting at -1.5 points Port Adelaide and -1.5 Collingwood.

Port Adelaide to lead at the end of all four quarters $3.95 (Port/Port/Port/Port)

Collingwood to lead at the end of all four quarters $3.95 (Coll/Coll/Coll/Coll)

The total match line is currently sitting at 168.5 points.

What We Think

Port Adelaide chances of playing finals footy this season are nearly gone as they are two and a half games outside the eight and have lost their last 3 matches. A poor result considering they were pre-season equal favorites to win the flag.

It is difficult to understand why they are playing such poor football this season with a list full of talent. Hamish Hartlett and Jay Schulz are having rotten seasons after playing fabulous footy last year.

Port Adelaide is averaging only 83 points per match this season after scoring 100 points per match in 2014. They are ranked in 11th for marks inside 50, ranked 12th in scoring and 10th in least points conceded and are 2-4 against teams in the top 8.

The Pies rank 3RD in points scored and 7th in points conceded and they are also the most accurate team in front of goals so far this season. Collingwood are also ranked 1st for marks inside 50.

Collingwood has dominated Port Adelaide recently, winning 7 out of their last 9 matches. The Pies have only played once at Adelaide Oval but won that match which was on a Thursday night last season.

The last 4 matches have all totaled under the match line at 168.5 points but the previous 4 matches were all over 168.5.

Collingwood played good football against the two premiership favorites in Hawthorn and Fremantle in the last two rounds and if they play that standard of footy, they will be hard to beat.

Port Adelaide played better football last round against the Swans but the Swans were without their 2 big key forwards. Overall, Port Adelaide has been terrible this season.

Going on current form, we have to be on Pies in a close match.

Prediction:
Collingwood to win: $1.93
Match total over 168.5 points
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.