Match Prediction Round 2: Essendon v Hawthorn

Hawthorn was brilliant in Round 1, smashing Geelong by 62 points. The margin could have been even greater as they kicked a total of 21 points and missed a few easy ones.

Hawthorn is strong in all areas and they have around 8 players who can play mid-field to give each other a rest when needed.

Essendon gave it everything against Sydney in Round 1 but ran out of legs in the 4th quarter to go down by 12 points after leading by 40 at the end of the 3rd term.

It was a bitter blow for Essendon after controlling the match for a long period. To restrict Sydney to just 3 goals in 3 quarters was a great effort.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Hawthorn as the $1.22 favorite with Essendon paying $4.50
The line is currently sitting at -27.5 points Hawthorn and +27.5 points Essendon.
Essendon to lead at the end of all four quarters $9.75
Hawthorn to lead at the end of all four quarters $1.75
The total match line is currently sitting at 179.5-180.5 points depending on bookmakers.

What We Think

Hawthorn has won the last 5 matches between these two sides. Last season in Round 2, Hawthorn managed to win a thriller by just 4 points. However, the previous 3 matches, they won by 56, 94 and 65 points.

Essendon were impressive last week against Sydney but the conditions did not suit Sydney as it was raining for long periods in that match which does not suit their style of play. Essendon did give up 52 points in the last quarter and still may not be fully fit.

Hawthorn has so many options up forward with Roughead, Breust, Gunston, Puopolo, Rioli and McEvoy. It is difficult to go past Hawthorn again at the line -27.5 points.

Hawthorn did not let us down in Round 1 and we landed our biggest bet of Round 1 at the line -16.5 points against Geelong. They play so well at the MCG and we think they will cover the line again this Round.

Hawthorn by 48 points for us!


Hawthorn to win: $1.22
Hawthorn at the line: -27.5 points at $1.91
Hawthorn match total: over 179.5 points at $1.91

Happy Betting!
– Marc

PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.