The Brisbane Lions enter AFL Round 3 on the back of two heavy losses. They were thumped by the North Melbourne Kangaroos last week by 82 points and lost at home against Collingwood in Round 1 by 12 points after trailing by as much as 53 points in the 3rd term.
The Richmond Tigers enter AFL Round 3 with 1 win and 1 loss. They managed to beat an ordinary Carlton outfit on the opening match of the AFL season by 27 before going down last week to an improved Western Bulldogs team by 19 points.
Lions forward Michael Close has been ruled out for the season and their number 1 player and Captain, Tom Rockliff, is still missing with broken ribs.
Brett Deledio is racing against time to return for the Tigers which would be a big boost to their chances.
What The Bookies Think
The bookies have opened the markets and installed Richmond as the $1.49 favorite with Brisbane paying $2.70
The line is currently sitting at -13.5 points Richmond and +13.5 points Brisbane.
Richmond to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.95
Brisbane to lead at the end of all four quarters $5.00
The total match line is currently sitting at 166.5 points.
What We Think
Richmond have had the wood over the Brisbane Lions in recent times, winning the last 5 in a row. Last season Richmond won by 25 points at the MCG in Round 16 and 43 points at the Gabba in Round 5. The previous 3 margins were 23, 48, 31 points.
Overall, Richmond have a decent record at the Gabba, leading 9 – 8.
Richmond was probably a little disappointing against the Western Bulldogs last week but the Bulldogs showed that their win in Round 1 was no fluke against the West Coast Eagles.
If you look at the overall statistics last week, Richmond came out on top in most areas against the bulldogs in a close match.
Brisbane Lions were absolutely terrible last week against the Kangaroos and were hammered in all statistical areas of that match. They struggle without their leader Tom Rockliff.
Alex Rance has been spectacular so far this season for Richmond and Brett Deledio will be a massive inclusion if he plays. If Deledio plays well, Richmond usually plays well. Jack Riewoldt is also capable of kicking a big bag for Richmond.
Richmond is one of those teams that you can never back with absolute confidence but we just cannot go past them against Brisbane this weekend.
The line at -13.5 points looks good to us and we think they should win this match by 26 points.
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