Match Prediction Round 3: Collingwood v St Kilda

The Saints and the Pies enter AFL Round 3 on the back of one win apiece. Collingwood were disappointing last week against the Crows while St Kilda impressively upset the Gold Coast Suns.

St Kilda will look to enter this match with an unchanged team while Collingwood will be sweating on the fitness of Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Collingwood as the $1.40 favorite with St Kilda paying $3.00
The line is currently sitting at -16.5 points Collingwood and +16.5 points St Kilda.
Collingwood to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.35
St Kilda to lead at the end of all four quarters $6.00
The total match line is currently sitting at 167.5-169.5 points depending on the bookmaker.

What We Think

Collingwood have won the last 6 matches between these two sides, which includes the 2010 Grand Final replay. Collingwood smashed St Kilda last season by 86 points at Etihad Stadium. The previous margins were 26, 6, 19 and 57 points to the Pies.

This one is tough to call!

Collingwood were ordinary last week against Adelaide but Adelaide is flying at the moment and would beat most teams on their current form. To the Magpies credit, they did manage to kick the last 5 goals in that match.

In Round 1, Collingwood were leading Brisbane by as much as 53 points in the 3rd quarter until the Lions kicked the last 7 of the match, so it is hard to tell what you are going to get from the Magpies after watching their first 2 matches.

St Kilda was impressive last week against the Gold Coast Suns but St Kilda was also favorites for the wooden spoon at the start of the season and we do not personally rate the Suns this season.

In Round 1, St Kilda went down by 9 points to GWS at Etihad.

Travis Cloke will need to step up and kick a big bag in this match. The big man is out of form and has only kicked 3 so far this season but he has a good record against the Saints.

Saint Kilda has surprised a few so far this season but they are still under-manned in most areas. It is still too early for us to take the Saints at this stage.

Statistically, Collingwood have the wood on Saint Kilda and they did beat them by 86 points last season.

That is enough for us to get on Collingwood at the line but we will be keeping the wagering to a minimum.


Collingwood to win: $1.40
Collingwood at the line: -16.5 points at $1.91

Happy Betting!
– Marc

PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.