Match Prediction Round 4: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn


Port Adelaide v Hawthorn:

Port Adelaide recorded their first win of the season last week in a tight contest against North Melbourne. That pulled them up to 13th on the AFL ladder after going down to Fremantle in Round 1 by 8 points and Sydney in Round 2 by 48 points.

Hawthorn enters AFL Round 3 with 2 wins and 1 surprise loss against the Bombers. They thumped Geelong in Round 1 by 62 points and did the same to the Western Bulldogs last week, winning by 70 points.

What The Bookies Think

The bookies have opened the markets and installed Hawthorn as the $1.70 favorite with Port Adelaide paying $2.25

The line is currently sitting at -7.5 points Hawthorn and +7.5 points Port Adelaide.

Hawthorn to lead at the end of all four quarters $3.30

Port Adelaide to lead at the end of all four quarters $4.50

The total match line is currently sitting at 182.5 points.

What We Think

This is a rematch of last season’s pulsating Preliminary Final where Hawthorn won by just 3 points in a thriller. Many punters believe that these two sides can play in the AFL Grand Final this season and Saturday night ANZAC Day clash under the lights at the Adelaide Oval should be a ripper!

Port Adelaide has had a tough draw to start AFL season 2015. Having to play Fremantle, Sydney, North Melbourne and now Hawthorn is tough.

Hawthorn has a decent record playing Port Adelaide in Adelaide. They have now won 5 out of the last 6 matches. That is remarkable, considering that Adelaide Oval is often called the “Portress”.

Hawthorn is the highest scoring team so far this season, averaging 109 points per match to Port Adelaide’s 75. Hawthorn will welcome back Brad Hill this week which will give them some extra run and speed. Kane Cornes and Matthew Lobbie have been included for Port, while Ollie Wines is out with a broken wrist.

Port Adelaide had a tough, physical match against North Melbourne last weekend, probably the most intense physical match so far this season. We believe that may take its toll on Port Adelaide. This will be the 4th tough match in a row, whereas Hawthorn had a day out last week and cruised to victory.

Jarrod Roughead is the key to this match. He has kicked 11 goals against Port Adelaide in the last 2 matches. He has also kicked 11 goals so far this season, including 7 against the Bulldogs last week. Breust and Gunston are also capable of kicking bags of goals with both players in the Top 10 goals scorers last season.

Hawthorn has match winners all over the ground and when they are playing well, they are extremely hard to beat.
Port Adelaide has a high-speed, counter attacking, risk taking, ball carrying game plan. It works well for them if no pressure is applied. Sydney put the pressure on them at the Adelaide Oval in Round 2 to great effect and held them to just 44 points in total.

Hawthorn is the best in the business at applying pressure. They control the ball with great precision and have so many options up forward.

This should be a great match but we think Hawthorn will be just too good for Port Adelaide.

Prediction:
Hawthorn to win: $1.70
Hawthorn at the line: -7.5 points at $1.93
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn match total: over 182.5 points at $1.93
Happy Betting!
– Marc
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.