Richmond v Melbourne:
Richmond should enter this match full of confidence after thumping an ordinary Brisbane outfit by 79 points last weekend. That puts them in 5th position on the AFL ladder with 2 wins and 1 loss early in the season.
Melbourne enters AFL Round 4 on the back of a 25 points loss to Adelaide last week. It was an encouraging effort against the Crows but they have slipped down to 12th place on the AFL ladder with 1 win and 2 losses.
What The Bookies Think
The bookies have opened the markets and installed Richmond as the $1.30 favorite with Melbourne paying $3.70
The line is currently sitting at -22.5 points Richmond and +22.5 points Melbourne.
Richmond to lead at the end of all four quarters $2.05
Melbourne to lead at the end of all four quarters $7.00
The total match line is currently sitting at 159.5-162.5 points, depending on the bookmaker.
What We Think
Melbourne won this match last year in Round 9 by 17 points despite having 8 less scoring shots. Richmond blew their chances by kicking 9 goals 20 points. The previous 4 matches were won by Richmond with a winning margin of 34, 23, 59 and 7 points.
It is still too early in the season to assess exactly where Richmond is at the moment. They beat Carlton in Round 1 by 27 points, lost to the Bulldogs in Round 2 by 19 points and thumped Brisbane last week by 79 points. They have not played any Top 8 sides so far this season and face another team in the bottom 8 in the Demons on Friday night.
Melbourne has surprised a few punters so far this season as most tipsters expected them to finish in the bottom 2. Paul Roos has had a major influence and changed their match style. They now play man-on-man, which has improved their results so far this season. They managed to beat the Gold Coast Suns by 26 points in Round 1, lost to GWS in Round 2 by 45 points before going down in a decent effort against Adelaide last week by just 25 points.
The Tigers have done well for us so far this season. We have had 2 bets on them, in Round 1 and Round 3, and they won comfortably on both occasions. Richmond has actually now won 11 out of the last 12 matches in the home-and-away season going back to Round 15 last year. It is hard to fault that form!
They did have 12 individual goal kickers last week against Brisbane, which is encouraging. Riewoldt bagged 4 last week and he should be able to do that again this Round.
The layers have set the line at -22.5 points, which looks about fair value. We expect Richmond to win this one anywhere between 20 and 32 points.
Richmond appears to be in decent form if you analyze their recent overall record. They have given us two solid wins so far this season so we are going to stay on them and hope they cover the line once again.
Stay tuned for the late mail as there may be some inclement weather on Friday night which means our position may change.
Richmond Tigers to win: $1.30
Richmond Tigers at the line: -22.5 points at $1.93
Richmond Tigers v Melbourne Demons match total: over 159.5 points at $1.93
PS. Want to know exactly what I am betting on? You can get my tips and inside info – including the exact bets I am placing personally, with my own money – by subscribing here.