The Gold Coast Suns notched up their first win of the season last week, defeating the Brisbane Lions by 64 points. The Suns have dropped Trent McKenzie, Harley Bennell and Brandon Matera for off-field indiscretions this week. Jack Martin has also been added to their already large list of injuries.
The Adelaide Crows are coming off a 24 point loss to their arch rivals, Port Adelaide last Sunday. The Crows were in super-hot form in the first three Rounds but have now lost 2 consecutive matches which have dropped them down to 7th position on the AFL ladder.
What The Bookies Think
The bookies have opened the markets and installed Adelaide as the $1.18 favorite with Gold Coast Suns paying $5.35
The line is currently sitting at -35.5 points Adelaide and +35.5 points Gold Coast.
Adelaide to lead at the end of all four quarters $1.40
Gold Coast to lead at the end of all four quarters $10.00
The total match line is currently sitting at 187.5 points.
What We Think
The Gold Coast Suns are depleted by injuries and self-imposed suspensions. They did win last week by a large margin but most reserve teams would not have much trouble beating Brisbane at the moment. The Suns will be without Gary Ablett, Sam Day, Nick Malceski, Jack Martin, David Swallow, Tyrone Downie, Trent McKenzie, and Harley Bennell.
The Suns overall form this season has been poor. Greater Western Sydney thumped the Suns by 74 points in Round 4 and they have also suffered losses to Geelong, Saint Kilda and Melbourne. Overall, they have had a relatively easy draw and not produced the goods.
The Adelaide Crows started off the season with a bang, smashing North Melbourne by 77 points in Round 1, Collingwood by 27 points in Round 2 and Melbourne by 25 point in Round 3. They were taken back to earth by the Western Bulldogs in Round 4 and fell-short last week against Port Adelaide.
We believe they were unfortunate not to win that match last week against Port Adelaide. They had 13 more clearances and a massive 29 more inside 50s. Not many teams have lost with such statistics! They did lack poise and were terribly inefficient against Port but the Suns do not have the ability to apply the pressure that Port Adelaide showed last week.
Adelaide has never been beaten by Gold Coast, winning all 6 matches played. The last 3 matches at Metricon Stadium between these two have seen the Crows win by 28, 71 and 61 points. Their overall average winning margin in all 6 matches played is 56 points.
Last season Tex Walker kicked 5 goals against the Suns in Round 11 and we believe he is in for a major bag again this week. The Crows just look far superior in all areas around the ground and we think that the Suns will find it hard to score. We would be surprised if they kick more than 8 goals in total this weekend.
The layers have moved the line to -35.5 points since the Suns suspended Bennell, Matera and McKenzie. That is a large line but we think the Crows will cover it and win by 40 plus.
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